Another month has passed and now we are close to finish this year. October was a good month, with a reasonable profit of 7.44%. This gives us a YTD return of 17.02%. All the markets followed their common seasonal patterns and all the spreads worked as expected. Most of the earnings came from the Energy and Meat spreads but Fixed Income spreads also worked.
As a seasonal trader, I search for a normal market distribution and unfortunately the drought we suffered last summer made all the commodities to move out of their seasonality. I am not just talking about the Grain market, the Meat market was also affected due to the change in feed cost for the animals. These uncommon patterns made trading more difficult and more volatile. We need to be aware of that these deviations are rare and they occur rarely. In the last 30 years only 3 to 4 years were similar to the actual year.Statistically, the last two months of the year are good in terms of returns but the USA elections and the problems in Europe -with Greece and Spain walking the tight rope- makes me to be careful when making new investments. The idea is to start taking positions in grains, meats and metal spreads for the medium and long term. Also trade short term spreads in energies and fixed income.
Please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any question or need more information.
— Gregory Placsintar
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THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITIES CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD, THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN COMMODITY TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.