The year has ended, a difficult year, a volatile year, but in the end I managed to close with a 20,36% gain. Little by little, I am getting out of the rough times of the summer which were caused by the severe drought in the United States. The drought had not only changed the periodic fluctuations of grain futures but also the whole structure of livestock prices and the prices of derived products.
I am an enterprising and very active person, I admit my mistakes and intend to learn from them. This summer I learned a lot: I realized that human stupidity is infinite and fear makes many operators of this market work in an irrational manner and without any meaning. Thinking about the consequences I suggest you take a look at the prices of wheat, corn and soya beans and think about those who bought at around the maximum. I let you know that the majority of investment funds that did it had to close their positions in losses not long ago when the price of wheat and corn returned to almost the same prices as before the summer.
What I learned is to get off the track when the train is getting loaded with sheep to the slaughter, sheep that think that they are going on holiday for free. Having seen the absurd behavior of the summer I had to change the risk filters a little bit and implement new ones for extreme market conditions. These filtes will limit the possibility of losses but will not reduce profit expectations.
The good news is that these atypical years happen once or twice in decades.
The overall results of 2012 were good: 20,36%, less than expected, there was a major setback but there was a relatively high Sharpe Ratio of 1,42%.
The forecasts for 2013 are about more tranquility in the grain markets and good seasonal fluctuations in the meat markets. I expect more volatility in energy and metals because of the problems of the Fiscal Cliff and because of the indecesion of the American and European governments.
As for bonds, I think the conditions have changed and we are looking at changes of tendency ahead of us in the 10Y Notes . Anyway, day-by-day changes will determine everything.
Thank you for trusting me and as always, should you have any questions or concerns do not hesitate to call me or send me a mail. I will be glad to be at your service.
— Gregory Placsintar
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THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITIES CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD, THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN COMMODITY TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.